🔗 Share this article

It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

A reversion to average might be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.